Most strategic decisions are made with far less certainty than leaders might hope. Traditional models assume predictable outcomes, stable preferences, and known risks – but reality rarely conforms. Instead, leaders operate in a context of radical uncertainty, where information is incomplete, causality is unclear, and events unfold in ways that defy probabilistic forecasting.

In this vignette, Roger Perry (our CEO) unpacks how decision-making under radical uncertainty differs from classical approaches. He explores practical frameworks for navigating ambiguity, the role of judgement versus models, and how to build organisational confidence in the face of unknowability. Drawing on lessons from economics, psychology, and complex systems, Roger outlines what it takes to improve decision quality when outcomes can’t be predicted and probabilities can’t be reliably assigned.

For materials used in the presentation, please click here.

Please send your questions, comments and feedback to: webinar@bevingtongroup.com